Certainty is overrated: How to build the right building and plan for the future you cannot see

by Andrea Kates, Founder, Business Genome™

I just returned from a Futures Forum: The Form of Things to Come (http://www.future-re.com) where a hand-picked group of industry leaders representing upwards of 10 billion dollars of forward spend in commercial construction considered profound questions, the most memorable of which being a fundamental one: “are we building the right buildings?”

The question was one of those deceptively simple ones where you reflect on one, the work that goes into planning buildings (in this case, university campuses, health centers, work and living spaces around the globe) and two, the level of insight and intelligence in the room. Of course the buildings being planned today must be the right ones.

But, mid-stream I started thinking, how do you figure out what’s right?

All kinds of opinions and data sets are factored into the conversation in this type of roundtable setting:

Who will use the facilities?
How will the future of the activities look?
What will the environment be like?
How will the availability of natural resources factor into the equation?
How will technology and equipment change over the next 50 years?

The 500 pound gorilla in the room lurked: What was the world like in 1959 (hint: Bobby Darin was singing Mack the Knife)?

If we’re planning for 2059 and beyond, what assumptions should we make?

I am the proud owner of a “Smart House” that was touted as futuristic, based on lots of hard-wired computer connections built right into the design. I remember the hours we spent drawing plans for exactly where our hard-wired internet connections should go, only to be replaced with wireless internet six months later. And, that was less than 10 years ago.

In one fell swoop, we had to prepare for something “completely different.”

Multiply my Smart House process by billions of additional dollars and a much longer time span. It’s easy to imagine the sense of responsibility felt by decision makers holding the reins on multiple billion dollars’ worth of construction commitment trying to envision the future.

The leaders gathered around the table at the Futures Forum were dealing with some sophisticated issues as they plan for the future: changes in capital structure, consideration of multi-use facilities, technological innovations for basic infrastructure, and technological innovations that can change their entire game. They wonder about the total cost of running their facilities over time, how to factor concepts like sustainability into their equations, and how to envision future workplaces all over the globe.

They wonder what they don’t know they need to wonder about yet.

Lots can change in 50 years. It’s easy to imagine any business leader feeling a bit overwhelmed, or even paralyzed.

What’s the best approach to planning for an uncertain future?

I drew some conclusions, many of which are easily adapted to the pressures faced by any business leader trying to choose a strategic direction:

1. Asking everyone today about what they’ll need tomorrow can’t be the only set of data to consider.
2. Studying potential what-if scenarios is probably very helpful, but should not distract business leaders from taking action.
3. Becoming fixated on prediction can’t be the only way to interpret trends.
4. Developing plans that have an element of adaptation built right in can put business leaders at a strategic advantage.
5. Instilling a discipline for keeping your look over the horizon fresh will put an entire organization at a strategic advantage.

Jim Collins, author of Good to Great, has a new theme  out this month, How to Thrive, where he emphasizes the importance of nimbleness and rapid response as powerful components of a strategic business discipline.

http://www.inc.com/magazine/20090401/in-times-like-these-you-get-a-chance.html

“It is only in times like these that you get a chance to show your strength. In the end, I think we need to have absolute faith in our ability to deal with whatever is thrown at us. And we need to have a complete, realistic paranoia that a lot can be thrown at us. It’s our ability to put those two contradictory ideas together: We need to be prepared for what we can’t predict and, at the same time, have this total, unwavering faith that we will find a way to deal with all of it. And I believe we will. I don’t believe the world will treat us well, but we will figure out how to do very well.”

Facilities planners can’t know if an MRI machine will be replaced with a new technology. University executives can’t know with certainty how campuses will change in the next generation. Global energy companies can’t create perfect models of the workplace of the future all over the world.

And, no business leader can know with certainty what the next “next” will be.

But, no matter what future you’re trying to plan for, there is comfort in knowing that it’s time to shift your focus from certainty to adaptation.

Musical Coda
I’m Working on a Building by Charlie Daniels

If I was a preacher, I tell you what I would do,
I’d keep on preachin’ and I’d work on the buildin’ too

I’m workin’ on a buildin’
I’m workin’ on a buildin’
I’m workin’ on a buildin’ for my lord, for my lord

If I was a drunkard, I tell you what I would do,
I’d quit my drinkin’ and I’d work on the buildin’ too

I’m workin’ on a buildin’
I’m workin’ on a buildin’
I’m workin’ on a buildin’ for my lord, for my lord

If I was a gambler, I tell you what I would do,
I’d quit my gamblin’ and I’d work on the buildin’ too

I’m workin’ on a buildin’
I’m workin’ on a buildin’
I’m workin’ on a buildin’ for my lord, for my lord

If I was a sinner, I tell you what I would do,
I’d quit my sinnin’ and I’d work on the buildin’ too

I’m workin’ on a buildin’
I’m workin’ on a buildin’
I’m workin’ on a buildin’ for my lord, for my lord